The U.S. labor market remains stuck in a “low-hire, low-fire” pattern. Job openings dipped slightly from February to March, settling at 6.87 million, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Hiring showed modest improvement, with the rate climbing to 3.5% after hitting a six-year low the month prior. At the same time, both layoffs and voluntary departures ticked upward, reaching 1.2% and 2%.

Attention now turns to April’s employment report, expected Friday, where economists anticipate roughly 65,000 jobs will have been added.

Breaking Down the JOLTS Report

Summary: March’s data reflects a mixed labor market—improved hiring compared to recent months, a slight rise in layoffs, and little movement in quits.

The increase in hiring to 3.5% represents the strongest level seen in nearly two years. Still, this follows an unusually weak February and may not signal a lasting rebound. By historical standards, particularly in the 2010s, this hiring level would typically coincide with a much higher unemployment rate than today’s 4.3%, underscoring how challenging the job market remains.

Quit rates continue to be one of the clearest indicators of labor market sentiment. For nearly a year and a half, they have remained largely unchanged, suggesting a steady but stagnant environment with little upward or downward momentum.

Layoffs have edged higher, though they are still relatively low overall. The shift reflects a move back toward more typical levels rather than a sharp deterioration. Other indicators, such as initial jobless claims and survey data, continue to point toward stable or even declining layoffs, reducing immediate concern.

Job openings, while still elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, are gradually trending downward. However, these figures tend to carry less weight than hiring and turnover data when assessing overall labor market health.

A key risk factor remains rising energy costs. Even if current hiring gains prove sustainable, increased costs could weigh on economic activity and weaken labor market conditions later in 2026.